When facts are not enough


UMaine Professor Robert Wheeler asked me to present on science communication and risk perception to his Infectious Disease class. Because of Dr. Wheeler’s expertise and other topics covered in the class, I used the case of vaccines and autism to illustrate my points. The following is a summary of the lecture.

Science has evolved to generate consensus about what is true and what is not. A wealth of scientific truths have been generated and transferred to the public in the last half-century. Yet neither public support for research nor scientific literacy has increased significantly over the same time period. Despite the best efforts of science writers like myself and the new generation of scientist-communicators, more and better information does not = knowledge.

Why?

A lack of understanding about how science works is partly to blame for people believing things that science says are not true, but that’s not the whole story.

Even when people have the right information, they don’t always make the decision that scientists would favor. In the last decade or so, we have learned from psychologists and communication scientists that people view information through the “frames” of their values and beliefs. They trust messengers and seek out sources of information with whom they already feel aligned: friends, relatives, neighbors, pastor, political party, etc.

While this has probably always been true, a concurrent trend is magnifying the issue: the unprecedented access that we all have to information, and misinformation.

As I mentioned in the beginning of this post, I am using the example of autism to illustrate how people maintain false beliefs in the face of facts.

Autism is a sensitive and serious topic. The dramatic increase in children with autism spectrum disorders is very real and very scary. The latest risk factor, tracked by the CDC, is 1 in 110. While increased understanding and diagnoses partly explains the rise in cases (about 25%), it can’t explain all of the increase.

graph showing 600% increase in autism

So, in the 1990s many people were trying to figure out what was causing this increase.

In 1998, a study was published proposing that autism was linked to the MMR vaccine. Even though most of the authors later retracted the study’s conclusions (because the experiment used a small sample and had no control group), a link had been made in the minds of many concerned parents (see Gerber and Offit for the details of this story). Around the same time, an EPA study of mercury exposure discussed thimerosal, a preservative in vaccines that contained mercury. Mercury is a neurotoxin, and so it was easy for parents to seize on the idea that not only was the MMR vaccine a risk, but all vaccines because they have mercury in them. In 1999, despite little evidence that thimerosal-containing vaccines were in any way associated with autism or other harm, authorities ordered their phase-out in favor of thimerosal-free alternatives.

By the end of 2001, the only childhood vaccines still containing thimerosal were flu vaccines, and few children received them. This precautionary step, coupled with a public already concerned by a proposed but unsubstantiated link between vaccination and autism, understandably provoked concern among parents (Gerber and Offit).

But what happened to autism diagnoses?

They continued to rise.

Dozens and dozens of studies conducted since 2001 have looked at vaccines and autism and the science does not support any connection.

“The data support a conclusion of no association between thimerosal-containing vaccines and autism in children,” Dr. Sarah Parker, Journal of Pediatrics (2004).

“There is insufficient evidence to suggest that the MMR vaccine causes autism, either due to the vaccine itself, the presence of thimerosal, or the simultaneous administration of multiple vaccines,” Heather Coates, Medical Reference Services Quarterly (2009).

“20 epidemiologic studies have shown that neither thimerosal nor MMR vaccine causes autism,” Dr. Paul Gerber, Vaccines (2009).

Many of the scientists who authored these studies have made the point that concern about vaccines has diverted attention—and research funding—away from efforts to determine the real cause or causes of autism (e.g., genetic influence, other environmental factors).

So why is there still such fear of vaccines? Why hasn’t attention shifted to more probable causes?

Why do people still believe there is a link? How do we support our false beliefs?

1. Vaccines are given at the very same time that autism is diagnosed, so correlation easily becomes causation. Our brains seem to be wired to notice patterns, to believe that two things that happen at the same time are related. After a mercury link was ruled out, alternative theories emerged, such as the idea that the simultaneous administration of multiple vaccines overwhelms or weakens the immune system and creates an interaction with the nervous system that triggers autism in susceptible children. (Although the number of vaccines administered to children has increased, the total immunologic load has decreased.)

2. We have lost social memory of childhood diseases.

graph showing declines in childhood diseases

Vaccination is considered one of the major success stories in public health. Vaccines have eliminated diseases such as polio and small pox, and prevented outbreaks of mumps, measles, hepatitis, whooping cough. Because these diseases are no longer common, we have forgotten them. The new generation of parents has no memory of these diseases from their own childhood, and so may question the need for vaccines. Side effects or reactions to vaccines appear more common than the diseases the vaccines are preventing, increasing the perception that vaccines represent a risk. The fear of vaccines has replaced fear of childhood diseases.

A theoretical, even disproved risk such as getting autism from a vaccine, is elevated above a real risk of being hospitalized or killed by influenza, or promoting an outbreak of diseases like whooping cough or mumps. Harm resulting from immunization is less acceptable than potential harm from not immunizing. This is a classic example of “omission bias” in which the idea that causing harm through action (commission) is less acceptable than harm that results from inaction (omission). It is better to do nothing (Amanna and Slifka).

Psychology offers additional explanation of how people obtain and process information. Much of this research is focused on political beliefs, but is relevant to any factual information. Unsubstantiated beliefs are maintained via “motivated reasoning,” which suggests that rather than search rationally for the truth, people actually seek out information that confirms what they already believe.

Even when confronted with facts, people don’t necessarily change their belief.

People interpret facts differently; often this difference is illustrated by political affiliation and ideology (Democrat vs. Republican). If a new fact agrees with your belief, you might interpret the fact in an accepting way that strengthens your belief. If the new fact contradicts your belief, you might interpret it in a defensive way and resist changing your belief. Interpretations give individuals leeway to align facts with undeniable realities and yet continue to justify their beliefs and opinions. In the case of the Iraq War, Republicans and Democrats differed in their interpretations of the fact that the United States did not find weapons of mass destruction. Democrats concluded that the weapons did not exist, supporting their opposition to the war. Republicans interpreted the fact to mean that the weapons had been destroyed or moved or not yet found, thus maintaining the rationale for the invasion (Gaines et al. 2007).

When confronted with the fact that mercury is no longer in vaccines, a worried parent might interpret that vaccines themselves, not mercury, are the problem.

Another study looked at whether people change their beliefs when presented with corrected information. Such corrections can actually strengthen misperceptions. The truth can backfire (Nyhan and Reifler).

However, there does seem to be a “tipping point” when enough facts and broader public sentiment, which trigger anxiety, can lead people to change their beliefs (Redlawsk et al.).

More basic emotions also play a role: fear, anxiety, desire.

A study in the journal Sociological Inquiry (Prasad) looked at the strength and resilience of the belief among many Americans that Saddam Hussein was linked to the terrorist attacks of 9/11. The authors concluded that the belief was the result of an urgent need by many Americans to seek justification for a war already in progress. This study argues that the primary cause of misperception in the 9/11-Saddam Hussein case was not the presence or absence of accurate data, but a respondent’s desire to believe in particular kinds of information.

We get attached to our beliefs. They become part of our identity. And so for the people interviewed in this study, the overwhelming evidence that there was no link between Saddam and the 9/11 attacks had no influence on their belief that such a link existed. It had to be true for people to make sense of the war.

So for parents crushed by an autism diagnosis, “there must be a reason.”

The intense desire for an autism cure often leads parent groups and nonprofit organizations to endorse causes and treatments without sufficient evidence of effectiveness. And, for better or worse, it is easier than ever to find (mis)information that supports your belief.

References

Black, Steven, and Rino Rappuoli. 2010. A Crisis of Public Confidence in Vaccines. Science Translational Medicine 2:1-6.

Gaines, Brian J., et al. 2007. Same Facts, Different Interpretations: Partisan Motivation and Opinion on Iraq. The Journal of Politics 69:957-974.

Nyhan, Brendan, and Jason Reifler. 2010. When Corrections Fail: The Persistence of Political Misperceptions. Political Behavior 32:303-330.

Prasad, Monica, et al. 2009. “There Must Be a Reason”: Osama, Saddam, and Inferred Justification. Sociological Inquiry 79:142-162.

Redlawsk, David P., Andrew J.W. Civettini, and Karen M. Emmerson. 2010. The Affective Tipping Point: Do Motivated Reasoners Ever ‘Get It’? Political Psychology 31:563-593.

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Science is People: Interviews and Profiles


The first profiles were definitive character sketches written for the New Yorker in the early 1930s. The method gained popularity because editors and writers discovered that the surest and easiest way to make an otherwise heavy topic come alive was to cover it from the viewpoint of a person involved. We are all the same: we can put ourselves in another person’s shoes, we share the world as humans and want the same things: health, family, security, love, sleep, etc.

There are different levels of profiles, from Q & A to stories that feature the scientist as main character to in-depth profiles. Not every scientist is going to make a good profile, but interviewing scientists is an important piece of writing about science. Below are some resources and examples. As we find more in our reading, I’ll post them here.

Resources:

Claudia Dreifus, 1997, Interview

Claudia Dreifus, 2001, Scientific Conversations and her many profiles and interviews in the New York Times, such as this one on marine biologist Cindy Lee Van Dover.

Steven Shapin, “The State of the Scientist,” Seed Magazine

William Zinsser, On Writing Well (See Chapter 12, “Writing about people”)

Examples:

Josh Dean, “Pack Man,” Outside

Timothy Egan, The Good Rain (see Chapter 4, “The Last Hideout”)

Scott Gates, “Miss Fish Hatchery,” High Country News

David Gessner, The Prophet of Dry Hill (book-length profile of writer and naturalist John Hay)

 

Howard Hughes Medical Institute Bulletin frequently contains profiles such as this one by Sarah Goforth and this cover story on laboratory technicians.

Tom Junod, “The Mad Scientist Bringing Back the Dead…Really,” Esquire

David Quammen, Song of the Dodo (see section “The Coming Thing,” on Edward O. Wilson)

Joseph Mitchell, The Bottom of the Harbor

Helen Pearson, “Being Bob Langer,” Nature

Abigail Tucker, “In Search of the Mysterious Narwhal,” Smithsonian

Tom Vanderbilt, “The Foggiest Idea,” Outside

The “Why I Do Science” and “Workbench” features of Seed Magazine show the reasons why people are called to science as well as a glimpse into their everyday lives.

This New York Times story by James Gorman is an example of following your subject outside into the field. Also the “Scientist at Work” blog.

For an example of a terrible profile of a scientist, read “The Rise of the Fungus Farmers” in The Washington Post Magazine. In what ways is this article an example of what NOT to do when writing about scientists?

Synthesis


What does it mean to synthesize? I trolled the web and found some sources, and combined them with my own observations into the following post.

Slide02Synthesis combines information from two or more sources. The sources could include published peer-reviewed literature, articles, essays, and books, but also lectures, seminars, interviews, data, observations, and personal experience.
You synthesize all the time—when you identify relationships between something you’ve read online and something you’ve seen for yourself. When you make a decision about something, like buying a car or renting an apartment, you are synthesizing information. Maybe you ask your friends or family for advice. You research cars online or set up appointments to view apartments. You check carfax.com and talk to other tenants. Then, in your mind, you pull these various bits into some kind of picture that helps you make a decision.

As you begin to write a synthesis, you accurately report information from the sources using paraphrase and/or direct quotation. (Learn more about how to avoid plagiarism by paraphrasing correctly.)

Slide04But a synthesis is more than combining a spectrum of source material into a single document. Why? Because you also have to use your own mind and words to draw connections between the sources, and using these connections to relate the different texts in a way that illuminates and transforms the material. Synthesizing sources is a matter of pulling them together into some kind of harmony.  You may have to consider whether what seem like unrelated elements or opposite observations might be reconciled. You may have to create an umbrella idea, some larger argument under which several observations and perspectives might stand.

The information should be organized and presented in such a way that readers can identify the various sources, and how they overlap. Finally, the synthesis makes sense of the sources and helps the reader understand them in greater depth.

What are some different types of syntheses?

A concept or explanatory synthesis divides a subject into its component parts and presents them to the reader in a clear and orderly fashion. The purpose in writing an explanatory essay is not to argue a particular point, but rather to present the facts in a reasonably objective manner, to explain how something works. The explanatory synthesis does not go much beyond what is obvious from a careful reading of the sources.

A synthesis of an event pulls in multiple perspectives to craft a full picture of what happened. Think of an earthquake, a hurricane, or the bird flu outbreak. It could be news or a retrospective.

History or chronology syntheses provide a timeline or describe the evolution of a topic. They may contain reflection and multiple views. Examples include pollution, resource declines, science policy.

The purpose of an argument synthesis is to present your own point of view – supported, of course, by relevant facts, drawn from sources, and presented in a logical manner. The thesis of an argumentative essay is debatable. Any two writers working with the same source materials could conceive of and support other, opposite arguments.

Almost any feature article in a magazine or newspaper could be considered a synthesis.

The way you relate information sources, the patterns you identify, the questions you ask and the way you answer them, all of these are personal  and unique.

So, its easy to talk about synthesis in the abstract. But how do you actually do it?

First, what is your purpose? Why are you writing this synthesis, and for whom? Remember your audience. Your purpose determines which sources you use, which parts of them you use, at which points in your essay you use them, how you relate them to one another, and how much weight or space to give them in your story.

Second, you have to start reading differently—more thoughtfully, as MIT professor Ed Boyden explains in a Technology Review blog post titled “How to Think.

Highlight key facts and ideas while reading. Cut and paste important text (keeping the source attached!) into a notes document.

By reading actively, you will start to recognize the crucial connections between ideas that form the basis for synthesizing. Since the very essence of synthesis is the combining of information and ideas, you must have reason for attempting to combine them. What are the relationships among your sources that make them worth synthesizing? Answering this question can help provide a framework for the synthesis.

Finally, you can now start to write. You have all the pieces—you just have to fit them together, trimming and moving text, adding transitions and context. Flag any gaps or questions that require more reading or research. Add that information in, trim some more, move things around.

Read it aloud. Put it away for awhile. Read it again. This is the “work” part of writing.

A few examples:

Carl Zimmer’s article in The New York Times was one of three that earned him an award from the American Association for the Advancement of Science. I counted at least six interviews and eight peer-reviewed journal articles as sources, as well as one in-progress study in the 2,000 word story.

A recent 3,500-word feature story by veteran reporter Ted Williams in Audubon used nearly 75 sources, including multiple interviews with 20 people, dozens of documents and peer-reviewed journal articles, and web sources.

In a magazine article (links to PDF) published last spring, I combined peer-reviewed literature and historical accounts with a field trip with researchers into 2,000 words about a fish.

Research institutions, government agencies, and nonprofits often produce synthesis reports. One recent report from Dartmouth College used some 86 scientific sources, nearly all of them peer-reviewed, as well as interviews and datasets for a 26-page synthesis of scientific knowledge on mercury in the marine environment.

Sources

http://www.users.drew.edu/sjamieso/synthesis.htm

http://www.findingdulcinea.com/features/edu/Strategies-for-Synthesis-Writing.html

https://www.msu.edu/~jdowell/135/Synthesis.html

http://www.dartmouth.edu/~writing/materials/student/ac_paper/what.shtml

Science as news


Science news can be found in print, on the radio, and on television. Spending time reading science stories is good preparation for writing one’s own science news articles. Here is a list of science news outlets. Since I’ve been giving students this assignment, the links have changed. Many news outlets, including USA Today and The Boston Globe, no longer have a designated “science” page. In many cases, typing “science” into the search box will bring up science stories.

News

USA Today http://www.usatoday.com/tech/

The New York Times http://www.nytimes.com/pages/science/index.html

The Washington Post http://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science

The Los Angeles Times http://www.latimes.com/news/science/

Christian Science Monitor http://www.csmonitor.com/Science

The (UK) Guardian http://www.guardian.co.uk/science

National Public Radio http://www.npr.org/sections/science/

Science Daily http://www.sciencedaily.com/

Environmental Health News http://www.environmentalhealthnews.org/

The Wall Street Journal http://online.wsj.com/home-page

Discovery Channel News http://news.discovery.com/

PBS http://www.pbs.org/topics/science-nature/

Grist http://www.grist.org/

High Country News http://www.hcn.org/

 

Climate

Climate Wire http://www.eenews.net/cw/

Climate Desk http://theclimatedesk.org/

Yale Environment 360 http://e360.yale.edu/

Real Climate http://www.realclimate.org/

Climate Science Watch http://www.climatesciencewatch.org/

Science Journals

New Scientist http://www.newscientist.com/section/environment

Science http://www.sciencemag.org/

Nature http://www.nature.com/

Environmental Health Perspectives http://ehp03.niehs.nih.gov/home.action

Environmental Science & Technology http://pubs.acs.org/journal/esthag

Etc.

Research

Discoveries and Breakthroughs Inside Science http://www.aip.org/dbis/

American Association for the Advancement of Science http://www.eurekalert.org/

University research news http://www.futurity.org/

University of Maine News http://www.umaine.edu/news/ and Research http://www.umaine.edu/research/ *

* Many other academic and research institutions have their own news distribution

Reading science stories


Questions to ask yourself when reading science stories:

(adapted from Carol Rogers, University of Maryland; Don Gibb, Ryerson Polytechnic; and B. Kovach and T. Rosensteil, authors of Blur)

Basics: Who where when why how what is the story about?

Lead (Lede): How does the story begin? Does the lead/lede/opening paragraph contain too much detail? Is it too vague, too routine or cliched? Is the lead buried? Is it adequately supported by the rest of the story?

Appeal: What attracted you to the story?

Audience: Who is the intended or presumed audience for the story?

News aspect: Where did the story originate (research paper, meeting, press release, etc.)? What is the news hook or angle of the story?

Explanation: Did the reporter explain complex concepts? How (through use of analogies, metaphor, etc.)? Is there too much explanation, or too little? Is the story easy to understand (including presence or absence of jargon and graphics)?

Source material: Who or what are the sources? Are sources identified (are you able to access them yourself?) Are there quotes? Are quotes too long or ineffective? Do the quotes add “voice” to the story?

Validity: What evidence is presented and how was it tested or vetted? What might be an alternative explanation or understanding?

Supplementary media: Does the story contain or link to visuals, blogs, podcasting, etc. Is the story multi-media?

Detail: Are there too many generalizations (“most” or “many”) and not enough specifics? Does the writer include observational details like sights, sounds, tastes, etc.?

Organization: How is the story structured? How do the paragraphs flow or relate? Does the story have a traditional news (inverted pyramid) structure or a more narrative format?

Context: how does this story relate to what has come before or what might come after?

Public Understanding of Science


Not only do science writers need to know something about their subject matter and how to describe it in truthful and interesting ways, but they need to know who needs to hear or read or watch the story. Writing is always a two-way process. When we are beginning as writers we tend to think one-sidedly, only about what is inside our own minds and our own words. But part of our growth as writers is to think more about the people on the other side—our readers, our audience.

Why is audience important? The usual answer is that science knowledge is important to the audience—they need to know and understand the information being communicated.

Matthew Nisbet, a professor of communication at American University, classifies dimensions of science knowledge.

1. Practical or utilitarian: It is often stated that science in everyday life is invisible, taken for granted. But science knowledge is used daily when you make decisions, like fixing your car, interpreting packaging on food, what to wear for the weather. Making such decisions might require a limited knowledge of basic scientific terms, concepts, and facts.

2. Then there is civic or democratic knowledge, sufficient to make sense of a news report, or interpret competing arguments about a policy decision. The public is often asked to make decisions about new technologies that could have far-reaching effects, both on its own wellbeing and on the rest of the world. To make these decisions, people need knowledge so that they can reason well about issues involving science.

3. Nisbet’s third type of understanding is institutional, about the politics and workings of science: who funds it, how is it regulated, etc. This level of understanding also means a capacity to distinguish science from pseudoscience—to know how science works. Maine’s Governor LePage has said he won’t remove rules that are based on science. But how will we know if a rule is “science-based” or not?

All of these theories about scientific literacy and public understanding are based on the idea of a gap between science and the people who need the knowledge that science provides. Here’s a representation of what that gap might look like (thanks to Rob Helpy-Chalk):

Slide16

Scientists communicate to each other and share knowledge through presentations and publications. The public, the ultimate target audience or the users of the information, could be policy makers, town officials, citizens. The gap between these two realms is well-accepted and often mentioned in conversations about science communication. But rather than accepting the gap, take a closer look. Is it real? Where did it come from?

Bernadette Bensaude-Vincent (2002) pointed out that the gap between scientists and the public is ancient and originated in the different requirements of theoretical and practical knowledge. In ancient times, however, both kinds of knowledge were valued, and it was not expected that ordinary citizens should become like philosophers or naturalists (the predecessors of today’s scientists). For centuries, it was thought and language only that separated them. Members of the public with an interest in science were encouraged to interact with scientists. Over time, as scientists became more professional and more specialized (think quantum physics),the enlightened public of amateurs, a term that still retained a strong positive connotation in the nineteenth century, was transformed into a “mass of gullible, irrational and ignorant people” in the twentieth century… In a relatively short period of time, public knowledge became irrelevant and scientists held a monopoly on legitimate knowledge.

In industrializing nations such as the U.S., science was idealized as the preferred route to economic expansion and social emancipation. The more citizens knew about science, the more they would support this view. As Boyce Rensberger has pointed out, the work of most science reporters in those days consisted largely of translating scientific jargon and explaining the statements of scientists and medical leaders. In the 1930s and ‘40s, science journalists believed that it was their job to persuade the public to accept science as the [economic] salvation of society.

So what have we learned? Does the American public understand and “accept” science?

The National Science Foundation surveys public attitudes and understanding of science every two years, and for several decades Americans have been asked the same series of true-false questions. The number of correct answers to these questions has remained flat—the average American adult does not “know” any more “science” today than he or she did twenty years ago.

Slide18

Only 51% of Americans knew that electrons are smaller than atoms. One-quarter of Americans don’t know that the Earth revolves around the sun. And 47% believe that human beings developed from earlier species of animals. Four out of five Americans do not understand the concept of a scientific study (Miller 2004).

But Americans are not necessarily smarter about other topics, and even scientists get many of these questions wrong (Stocklmayer and Bryant 2011). As many have pointed out, including Cornelia Dean and Jon Miller, most people leave science behind when they graduate high school, and the science we consider as citizens is not the facts collected in textbooks, but science that will not occur for another twenty years. The science we consider as citizens is more recent, unfolding every day.

So where do people get their information? How is the knowledge gap being so unsuccessfully filled?

According to the Pew Research Center for People and the Press, the Internet is slowly closing in on television as Americans’ main source of news. Television remains the most widely used source for national and international news  but, the percentage saying they regularly watch local TV news has dipped below 50% for the first time (48%).

9-27-12-10

Another Pew study found that the days of loyalty to a particular news organization on a particular piece of technology in a particular form are gone. The overwhelming majority of Americans (92%) use multiple platforms to get news on a typical day, including national TV, local TV, the internet, local newspapers, radio, and national newspapers. Some 46% of Americans say they get news from four to six media platforms on a typical day. Just 7% get their news from a single media platform on a typical day, mostly older, well educated, upper middle class whites (Purcell et al. 2010).

Yet more evidence has emerged that newspapers (whether accessed in print or digitally) are the primary source people turn to for news about government and civic affairs. Nearly three quarters (72%) of adults are quite attached to following local news and information, and local newspapers are by far the source they rely on for much of the local information they need (Miller et al. 2012).

Online and digital news consumption, meanwhile, continues to increase, with many more people now getting news on cell phones, tablets or other mobile platforms. And perhaps the most dramatic change in the news environment has been the rise of social networking sites. The percentage of Americans saying they saw news or news headlines on a social networking site yesterday has doubled – from 9% to 19% – since 2010. Among adults younger than age 30, as many saw news on a social networking site the previous day (33%) as saw any television news (34%), with just 13% having read a newspaper either in print or digital form (Pew Research Center 2012).

The social media trends may mean that the 44% of adults who don’t follow the news regularly may be getting information via social media and other online sources.

What about science news specifically? Sources for science news parallel the general news findings from the Pew studies, with the Internet surpassing television as the dominant source for science and technology news. When it comes to specific scientific issues, more people turn to the Internet.

Slide25

The most popular online news subjects are the weather (followed by 81% of internet news users), national events (73%), health and medicine (66%), business and the economy (64%), international events (62%), and… science and technology (60%).

Slide27And people say they want more coverage of science. Asked what subjects they would like to receive more coverage, 44% said scientific news and discoveries (Horrigan 2006).

A study of the New York Times most-emailed articles in 2009 found that readers preferred e-mailing articles with a positive theme, including long articles on intellectually challenging subjects. They shared stories that inspired awe, including science stories (Tierney 2010).

So, we know that people want science-based information, that they actively seek it, and they aren’t necessarily deterred by length or complexity.

How skillfully or how often Americans engage in the search for scientific information, whether on the Internet or elsewhere, remains unknown. In a January 4, 2013 commentary in Science, Dominique Brossard and Dietram Scheufele note that among the U.S. public, time spent on the World Wide Web has been linked to more positive attitudes toward science. Online science sources may be helping to narrow knowledge gaps caused partly by science coverage in traditional media that tends to be tailored to highly educated audiences. Yet one of the challenges of the current situation is the sheer volume of information available on the Internet.  The social environment of the web influences the context for science stories. Just the tone of the comments following balanced science stories can significantly alter how audiences think about the subject matter.

References

Bensaude-Vincent, B. 2002. A genealogy of the increasing gap between science and the public. Public Understanding of Science 10:99–113.

Allum, N., P. Sturgis, D. Tabourazi and I. Brunton-Smith. 2008. Science knowledge and attitudes across cultures: a meta-analysis. Public Understanding of Science 17: 35.

Horrigan, J.B. 2006. The Internet as a resource for news and information about science. Pew Internet and American Life Project.

Inglehart, R. 1990. Culture Shift in Advanced Societies. Princeton: Princeton University Press.

Miller, C., K. Purcell, and T. Rosenstiel. 2012. 72% of Americans follow local news closely. Pew Research Center.

Miller, J. 2004. Public understanding of, and attitudes toward, scientific research: what we know and what we need to know. Public Understanding of Science 13:273-294. Jon D. Miller has been studying public interactions with science for more than 20 years. A recent summary of his work can be found in Science and the Media, a report from the American Academy of Arts and Sciences.

Nisbet, M. 2005. The multiple meanings of public understanding. Committee for Skeptical Inquiry.

Pew Research Center for People and the Press. 2012. Trends in News Consumption: 1991-2012.

Purcell, K., L. Rainie, A. Mitchell, T. Rosenstiel, and K. Olmstead. 2010. Understanding the participatory news consumer. Pew Research Center.

Stocklmayer, S.M., and C. Bryant. 2011. Science and the public—what should people know? International Journal of Science Education, Part B: Communication and Public Engagement 2:81-101.

Getting the Message Out: Communicating the Science of Pond Scum


I recently presented a communication workshop at the annual meeting of the Northeast Algal Society—scientists and students who study algae, both the microscopic plants that float in pond water and the giant kelp forests of the ocean.

The theme of this year’s gathering was “getting the message out.” The conference organizers, Dr. Jessica Muhlin of Maine Maritime Academy and Dr. Karen Pelletreau of the University of Maine, felt a need to convey the interest and importance of their subject matter to people outside their field (as evidence, check out this video they made).

Those who work with algae have a two-part challenge, because before they can talk about their research or why it might be important, they have to correct misconceptions about algae with some basic education (like in this video from Dr. Thierry Chopin).

The scientists at the meeting were “in the petri dish,” at the kind of internal meeting and conference where scientists really shine as communicators. They are used to talking to each other and exchanging ideas, which is fundamental to the process that is science. But scientists need to be reminded that people outside the petri dish have no idea what they do or how they do it, or most importantly why. As Cornelia Dean wrote in her book, Am I Making Myself Clear, most people leave science behind when they graduate high school, and the science they consider as citizens is not the facts collected in textbooks.

graphic of message box tool

There are various tools to help phycologists and other scientists craft their message. The National Science Foundation has a “message triangle,” which they developed as part of their ongoing Becoming the Messenger workshops. Communications consultant Eric Eckl promotes the use of “words that work” to natural resource agencies and nonprofit organizations. Andy Goodman encourages the use of storytelling. And Nancy Baron of Seaweb and Compass has the “Message Box.” The basic elements of all these frameworks are the same.

However, many of the scientists at the Northeast Algal Society meeting conduct basic research or focus on taxonomy or biodiversity, topics that are difficult to connect to contemporary policy or daily life.

Realizing that many of the participants might struggle with even a simple tool like the Message Box, I tried to find some alternative approaches for those scientists who want to communicate to the public about subjects that aren’t “news” or “policy-relevant.”

The WOW factor.

Most algae are not what you might call charismatic megafauna, unless they involve solar-powered sea slugs or coral reefs. But algae can still be impressive, and casting your subject as a superlative—biggest, oldest, fastest, coldest—is one entry into the human imagination. What would someone who knows nothing about your work find weird, fascinating, or just plain cool?

For example, when I was planning my talk I learned that algae produce most of the oxygen we breathe (because they are aquatic and our planet is a blue planet. Lots of water = lots of algae = lots of oxygen), making them the most important plants on Earth and photosynthesis the most important process on the planet. (For a great lesson on this, watch a lecture by Russell Chapman of Scripps.)

Tell a story.

Storytelling advocate Andy Goodman says that “Humans tend to believe the story and reject the data.” Personal stories can make up for an abstract topic. Providing a glimpse into life outside the laboratory helps to show that scientists are “real people.” Not everyone is born a scientist. Many people take a circuitous route to science, and not all scientists practice “research” in the classic sense, but use their science degrees toward other pursuits; if more young people knew this, they may be more inclined to enter the field. Nancy Baron wrote, “Most scientists want to stick to the facts and the research. You have been trained to be rational and detached—to the point that you write in the passive voice. However, people are interested in other people. Scientists are fascinating, even when their research topic might not be. People are interested to know what you do day-to-day, including why and how you do it. Personal details are a ‘way in’ to the story.” Why are you willing to spend years studying one particular thing? What did all of that dedication reveal?

Check out Northeast Algal Society member Dylan Scott’s blog, which uses a personal viewpoint to communicate science (Dylan also recommends http://www.itsokaytobesmart.com/).

Make it pretty.

Whenever possible, as a first instinct or last resort, use sensory details. This approach is especially relevant to algae, which make for beautiful images. Use photographs of your study subject and its environment. Remind your audience of the beauty and wonder of nature. Does your subject move or make noise? What does it smell like, taste like, feel like? Once you get your audience’s attention you can get them interested in the details. For inspiration, check out seaweed art at the Cryptogamic Botany Company.

Make it local.

Messages have to be tailored to their intended audience, and people are curious about their own backyards. Can you make your story local? If the organism is rare or exotic, is there a local analog? Can you tell an audience about the algae in their own neighborhood? For example, the local audience on the Schoodic Peninsula, where the Northeast Algal Society meeting was held, would know about harmful algal blooms because red tides affect their local clam flats. Or they might be interested in studies of seaweed because of the predominance of rockweed and kelp along their shores. How can you relate your work to the place where you are sharing your message?

Literary Science Writing: A Return to Narrative


We do have literary and narrative science writing before World War II: Rachel Carson, Joseph Mitchell, John Steinbeck, etc. After mid-century, the change from private to public science had enormous consequences, and one of those was the birth of science writing as a distinct field (Franklin).

There also was a change in literature at this same time, a proclaimed “death of fiction,” of the great novel. Some argue that nonfiction writers stepped in to fill the void: Truman Capote, Norman Mailer, Joan Didion, Tom Wolfe, Hunter S. Thompson. Meanwhile, John McPhee started writing for The New Yorker.

So, what is literary journalism, narrative, creative nonfiction, etc.? You can lump these together or tease them apart. In essence, the forms of writing are often said to “borrow the tools of fiction” to craft true stories. Others would argue that true stories are the original stories. Here are some elements that can make your science writing “literary.”

Scene-by-scene construction

Immersion: participate, listen, learn, bear witness.

Voice/Narration: voice of self, of others.

Interdisciplinary perspective: “The liveliness of literary journalism comes from combining personal engagement with perspectives from sociology and anthropology, memoir writing, fiction, history, and standard reporting. Literary journalists are boundary-crossers” (Sims).

Investigative journalism

Travel

Complicated Structure (essay, digression, threads).

Accuracy/facts

Story (Narrative Arc, Mythic Journey, Hero’s Tale): Stories are collaborative–the listener paints the backdrop. Narrative isn’t merely a technique for communicating, its how we make sense of the world. The human brain has evoloved to enable the construction and comprehension of narrative (Achenbach). Story is the fundamental unit of communication. Humans tend to believe story and reject data. People compare their story to ones that are presented, and favor the story the most resembles their own. (Goodman).

References:

Achenbach, Joel. 2009. The Vestigal Tale. Washington Post, 29 October.

Dillard, Annie. 2005. “Introduction: Notes for Young Writers” in In Fact: The Best of Creative Nonfiction. New York: W.W. Norton.

Franklin, Jon. 1986. “Humanizing Science through Literary Writing” in Scientists and Journalists: Reporting Science as News. New York: The Free Press.

Goodman, Andy. http://www.agoodmanonline.com/green.html

Gutkind, Lee. 2006. “Creative Nonfiction: A Movement, not a Moment” in Creative Nonfiction Issue 29: The ABCs of CNF.

Kanigel, Robert. 2006. “The Science Essay” pp. 145-150 in A Field Guide for Science Writers, Second Edition. New York: Oxford University Press.

Kramer, Mark. 1995. “Breakable Rules for Journalists” pp. 21-34 in Literary Journalism. New York: Ballantine Books.

Shreeve, Jamie. 2006. “Narrative Writing” pp. 138-144 in A Field Guide for Science Writers, Second Edition. New York: Oxford University Press.

Sims, Norman. 1995. “The Art of Literary Journalism” pp. 3-20 in Literary Journalism. New York: Ballantine Books.

Zinsser, William. 2006. “Nonfiction as Literature” pp. 95-99 in On Writing Well, 30th Anniversary Edition. New York: Collins.

Reading Literary Science Writing


I’ve selected one or two articles for each student to read. Please come to class prepared to discuss your reading and read your favorite paragraph aloud. You can write up your response as your journal entry for the week. In your journal and your presentation, think about how the story is different from what you’ve been reading in your news outlet. Questions to consider include:

Where and when was the story published?

Who wrote the story?

Does the author have a science background?

How does the story begin?

What is the point of view? (first person “I”, “We”; second person “You”; third person)

Do you like the story? Why or why not?

Here are the articles:

Annie Dillard. “Spring” from Pilgrim at Tinker Creek, 1988.

Elizabeth Kolbert. “Stung” from The New Yorker, 2007.

Lisa Couturier. “A Banishment of Crows” from The Hopes of Snakes, 2005.

Rebecca Skloot. Excerpt from The Immortal Life of Henrietta Lacks, 2010.

Rachel Carson. “Undersea” from Atlantic Monthly, 1937.

David Gessner. “Learning to Surf” from Orion, 2006.

John McPhee. Excerpt from Basin & Range, 1982.

Hank Steuver. “What Exit? Fifty Years Later, the New Jersey Turnpike Finds a Little Respect,” 2001; David Remnick, “The New Jersey Turnpike: A Love Story,” 1984, both from The Washington Post.

Jon Franklin. “Mrs. Kelly’s Monster,” from The Evening Sun, 1978.

Jennifer Lunden. “The Butterfly Effect: Finding Sanctuary in Butterfly Town, USA,” Creative Nonfiction, 2010.

Robin Cody. “Miss Ivory Broom,” University of Portland Maagazine, 2003.

Alan Weisman. “Earth without People,” Discover, 2005.

Michael Pollan. “Dream Pond: Just add water,” in The New York Times, 1998; “Natural Narratives,” Nieman Narrative Digest, 2007.

Barry Lopez. “A Presentation of Whales,” Crossing Open Ground, 1985.

Data alert! A bit about graphs, maps, images, risk, statistics and uncertainty


Graphics and visuals like maps, charts, and timelines make information easy to understand and process. What might take paragraphs can be summarized in one image. Now, online graphics can be interactive, allowing readers an opportunity to explore data. Graphics can also be misleading.

Is the time scale appropriate for the trend being presented? Does the graph show all of the data, or a narrow window to convey a skewed picture? There is always more evidence than what is presented or published, but the key issue is whether evidence selection has compromised the true account of the underlying data (Tufte 07).

In maps, “large scale” means zoomed-in, detailed. “Small scale” means zoomed out, general. Is the type of map appropriate for the data being presented?

Look at the categories and the legend. Maps can be manipulated to show what you want.

Photos are easily mismatched to the text and the headline.

Risk is a possibility that something might happen or bring about some result.

High probability = high predictability (event more likely).

Low probability = low predictability (event less likely).

People (and sometimes the media) tend to overestimate the danger of rare events yet underestimate dangers of more common events. People tend to misjudge the relative risks from food safety issues, for example ranking pesticide residues as posing a much greater threat to human health than harmful microorganisms or an unhealthy lifestyle (lack of exercise, poor diet). Yet the statistics show that people are far more likely to die from lifestyle-related diseases such as coronary heart disease and cancers.

In fact, the top causes of death in US, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, are 1. heart disease, 2. cancer, 3. stroke.

Perceptions and knowledge of risk depend on whether the risk is individual, community, or societal. People tend to overestimate the role of forces inside the individual, such as personality, ability, disposition, and motivation, as causes for human behavior and to underestimate the role of environmental or situational factors, such as the varied opportunites and obstacles that exist for people in different social classes. When applied to whole groups, these attribution errors become the basis for sterotypes.

People tend to assume that if they can control a situation they are safer. We fear dying on airplane more than in a car crash, yet the number of traffic accident fatalities is much higher. Perhaps this is why we fear man-made disasters (radiation) more than natural disasters (tsunami). Trace amounts of radioactive iodine are being detected in rain over the US (CA and VT), but each news story is quick to point out how the levels are low and not a risk, but few offer any comparison to everyday risk.

People are more worried by dramatic but infrequent events than by “boring” risks like slipping on a wet floor. And alarmist, dramatic media coverage contributes to false risk perception. Take, for example, the shark attack. Fueled by Jaws and now Shark Week, our fears of sharks are conditioned. Bees, wasps and snakes are responsible for far more fatalities each year. In the United States the annual risk of death from lightning is 30 times greater than that from shark attack. For most people, any shark-human interaction is likely to occur while swimming or surfing in nearshore waters. From a statistical standpoint the chances of dying in this area are markedly higher from many other causes (such as drowning and cardiac arrest) than from shark attack. Many more people are injured and killed on land while driving to and from the beach than by sharks in the water. Shark attack trauma is also less common than such beach-related injuries as spinal damage, dehydration, jellyfish and stingray stings and sunburn. Indeed, many more sutures are expended on sea shell lacerations of the feet than on shark bites! (International Shark Attack File)

Second example: Avian flu caused 200 deaths in 5 years, with an unlikely possible mutation (from guts of birds to lungs of humans) resulting in a horrendous pandemic, hence alarmist media coverage. But as many as 40,000 people die each year from common seasonal flu. (Wulf 2010).

Risk is the result of events, conditions and situations, called “risk factors.” Where a risk factor has been consistently linked to an event or situation, the factor is said to “cause” death or illness: HIV causes AIDS, asbestos causes mesothelioma, cigarette smoking causes lung cancer.

With these well-proven exceptions, it is difficult to show that any one thing “causes” cancer because cancer doesn’t appear immediately after exposure, providing time for other factors to come into play. Without a direct cause and effect relationship, there are only associations, strong relationships, between a result/disease and an agent/situation, or risk factor. A risk factor is not a guarantee, not a cause, just an association, like high cholesterol and heart disease.

An association does not, by itself, indicate causation. Additional evidence is needed: the event must come before the result, and that other explanations are considered and ruled out. As humans, we seem wired to look for patterns, to want to explain things, hence our tendency to assume causation. But remember: Correlation does not equal causation.

Statistics attempt to quantify risk. But statistics are frequently misused and abused. All research involves choosing what to study and how to study it. Statistics, when applied to data, measure the strength of relationships. The greater the significance, the stronger the relationship, or the less chance that some other factor is important in explaining the relationship.

Where we have considerable knowledge of outcomes, we have an objective probability for a given outcome. In a coin toss, we do not know which face will turn up when it is tossed, but we have objective probabilities of what it will likely be. In complex systems, with many interconnected parts, scientists are often uncertain about the extent and magnitude of the connections. As a result, they have to make judgements about their strength, which is a subjective probability (Stephen Schneider, in Friedman et al.).

The most believable results will have certain characteristics: (Cohn)

Replication: They have been successfully repeated

Reevaluation: They have been tested by more than one method (mathematical technique)

Common attacks on statistics create the impression of numerous errors. Something is wrong with every sample, and pointing this out can begin the unraveling of any argument: the data are outdated, unrepresentative, missing, outliers. The r-squared value x only explains 100-x of the data. The scientist chose the wrong model (linear, non-linear, random, etc.). When additional variables are included, the results become insignificant. Other factors can result in the same effect. Any inconsistency or complication in the data are deliberately obscured or omitted–cast the perception of doubt. (Murray)

With our minds and our worlds filled with uncertainties and our days filled with only 24 hours, we often fall back on judgemental shortcuts, called heuristics, to make sense of things. People reconcile what they see and hear with what they already know from personal experience, friends and family, religious beliefs, political orientation, values, etc.

If someone tells us that things are uncertain, we think that means that the science is muddled. Uncertainty is everywhere, and leads to errors in interpretation. All too often, health benefit and risk statements are presented as if they were authoritative, definitive, and based on clear and compelling evidence. The result? An Illusion of Certainty.

Scientists do not just reduce uncertainty, they actively construct it. They look for problems in their own work by asking questions and probing for gaps and alternative explanations. Uncertainty is different than indeterminacy (when all the parameters of a system and their interactions are not known) and ignorance (when it is not known what is not known). Uncertainty means that the parameters are sufficiently known to make a qualitative judgement or attempt a conclusion; there is no such thing as absolute proof. Doubt (or curiousity or skepticism) is crucial to science (to a scientist, claiming or acknowledging uncertainty maintains an appearance of objectivity) but it also makes science vulnerable to misrepresentation. Uncertainty can appear as controversy, because it is easy to take uncertainties out of context and create the impression that everything is unresolved and thus plant seeds of doubt in the reader’s mind (Oreskes and Conway).

Another contributor to the illusion, as we’ve seen, is the habit of the news media to report research as “news,” presenting research findings out of historical and scientific context as new, very preliminary, and potentially groundbreaking. Reports can celebrate the finding, and downplay uncertainty. The accounts of each new project makes it appear to readers that scientists are much more uncertain than they actually are. Today’s news is easily contradicted by tomorrow’s reports. Other reports may emphasize early differences of opinion among scientists, highlighting uncertainty. Science is portrayed as a triumphant quest for certainty: the answer to a question, the solution to a puzzle, keys to unlock the door to knowledge, clues to a mystery. Often, the public is offered a view of the future in which scientific certaintly returns: “Researchers hope to be able to predict the behavior of hurricanes more precisely”; “By improving their understanding of X, researchers will solve problem Y.” (Zehr and Stocking, both in Friedman et al.)

Watch out for these phrases, or at least think about it before you use them. This is the challenge: how to communicate the ‘so what’ without claiming future certainty?

– Think about the outlet and the audience, and select your topic carefully. If the so what is a stretch, maybe don’t write the story.

– Interview others. A caution: the presence of multiple voices in a media story about emergent science allows the reader to glimpse the degree of consensus, yet it may be difficult for readers to evaluate. Are the uncertainties so great that reasonable people cannot come to a resolution? Is the finding so novel that other scientists simply have no useful expertise? With the Internet, readers can assemble meaning themselves by cobbling together stories about the same topic from a variety of places and times. If you cannot tell who is telling the truth or where the consensus lies, then the best you can do is accurately capture the message and attribute it. Or, you can present an array of viewpoints and let the reader decide (or feel overwhelmed) “This focus on the journalist as a passive transmitter allows us to make accuracy the most important characteristic of a story and often to bypass issues of validity all together…the objectivity norm urges journalists to leave their own analytical skills at home and to concentrate, instead, on conveying what they see and hear…if journalists are normatively limited to reporting rather than interpreting, then audiences are left to sift through the dueling representations of uncertainty themselves” (Friedman et al.).

– Explain changes in certainty or consensus. This requires historical context and knowledge of particular fields, and may be harder for a science generalist than for someone who specializes in certain subjects.

– Look at why people may be promoting or challenging uncertainty. We will look at this issue in more detail in a few weeks. If you say, ‘There is no evidence’, do you mean, ‘There are no studies done on X’, or, ‘There are lots of studies out there, and they show no risk of X causing Y’?

– Watch the use of anecdotes and false “trendsetting”. Anecdotes can be fine examples, but they are usually poor evidence. To a social scientist, what seems like a great interview with printable quotes is a convenience survey of an unrepresentative sample. Vivid anecdotes can interfere with a person’s judgement of risks (Griffin, in Friedman et al.) Make sure your examples are representative.

References

Best, Joel. 2001. Damned Lies and Statistics. Berkeley: University of California Press.

Best, Joel. 2004. More Damned Lies and Statistics. Berkeley: University of California Press.

Best, Joel. 2005. Lies, calculations and constructions: beyond How to Lie with Statistics. Statistical Science 20 (3):210-214.

Cohn, V. 1989. News and Numbers. Ames, IA: Iowa University Press.

Cope, Lewis. 2006. Understanding and using statistics, pp. 18-25 in A Field Guide for Science Writers, 2nd edition.

Drum, Kevin. 2010. Statistical Zombies. MotherJones.com

Friedman, S.F., S. Dunwoody, and C.L. Rogers. 1999. Communicating Uncertainty. Mahwah, NJ:Lawrence Erlbaum Associates.

Gould, Stephen Jay. The Median Isn’t the Message.

Huff, Darrell. 1954. How to Lie with Statistics. New York: W.W. Norton

Monmonier, Mark. 1996. How to Lie with Maps (2nd Ed.) Chicago: The University of Chicago Press.

Monmonier, Mark. 2005. Lying with maps. Statistical Science 20(3):215-222.

Murray, C. 2005. How to accuse the other guy of lying with statistics. Statistical Science 20(3): 239-241.

Niles, Robert. www.robertniles.com/stats/

Oreskes, Naomi, and Erik M. Conway. 2010. Merchants of Doubt. New York: Bloomsbury Press.

Rifkin, Erik, and Edward Bouwer. 2007. The Illusion of Certainty. New York: Springer.

Tufte, Edward R. 1983. The Visual Display of Quantitative Information. Cheshire, CT: Graphics Press.

Tufte, Edward R. 2006. Beautiful Evidence. Cheshire, CT: Graphics Press.

Tufte, Edward R. 1997. Visual Explanations. Cheshire, CT: Graphics Press.